Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Fly like an eagle


Diane Walker is the newest Eagle in SendOutCards!

Eagle is the highest rank in SOC and Diane is the first person to get to that level since I joined the company five and a half years ago. She joins current Eagle Distributors Jordan Adler, DeMarr Zimmerman and Bob & Betty Ann Golden.

The rank of Eagle is in honor of founder and CEO Kody Bateman's brother Kris. Years ago, Kody ignored a prompting, that inner voice that tells you that you should say or do something, that he should say goodbye to his brother Kris when Kody was moving to New York City from Salt Lake City. Kody didn't say goodbye and he was devastated when he got a call from his mother in the middle of the night that Kris had been killed in an on the job accident. At that moment Kody swore that he would never again ignore a prompting and he would make it easy for others to act on their promptings.

All of the Bateman's were active in Scouting,,,Kody and his brothers, as well as his father. were all Eagle Scouts and Kris was a Scoutmaster at the time of his death. Eagle is the highest rank in SOC because it is the highest rank in Scouting.

I've never met Diane but I've heard of her. At one time she was the top earner in SendOutCards. She works tirelessly to support her team with little thought of herself, but this is exactly why she's an Eagle...she always puts her team first and they rise up in support of her.

So, congratulations Diane Walker...SendOutCards' newest Eagle!

Interesting days


Today - HalloweenCaramel Apple Day and Magic Day

November - Peanut Butter Lovers' MonthNovel Writing MonthNative American Heritage MonthManatee Awareness MonthWorld Vegan Month and Pomegranate Month

Tomorrow - Go Cook For Your Pets DayStress Awareness DayAuthors' DayExtra Mile Day and World Vegan Day

Next Tuesday - Bittersweet Chocolate With Almonds Day and Hug A Bear Day

November 31 - Since there are only 30 days in November you (and I) get a day off!

Monday, October 30, 2017

Modesto: From #5 to #207 in 5 years!

I came across an interesting article while researching my blog post on averages from two weeks ago about the cities with the most affordable housing. Modesto was the fifth most affordable city in the US in the 2nd quarter of 2012 according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Bank Housing Opportunity Index that comes out quarterly:

5. Modesto, Calif. 

Median housing price: $135,000

Located in Northern California’s Central Valley and earning a Housing Opportunity Index rating of 91.5, Modesto offers affordable housing within reach to households earning the city’s median income of $62,000.
An HOI of 91.5 means that 91.5% of the homes for sale during that quarter were affordable to people earning the median income for that area.

But what a difference 5 years makes! In the current list, Modesto comes in 207th out of 233 metropolitan areas with an HOI of only 40.6!

Part of the decrease was due to a decrease in the median income to $57,500. But the biggest factor contributing to that was the doubling of the median home price from $135,000 in 2012 to $278,000 this year. And that is caused by people working in the Bay Area being shut out of the housing market (like me). Four of the 12 least affordable areas in the country are in the San Francisco Bay Area, with the San Francisco - Redwood City - South San Francisco metropolitan area being the worst in the nation with an HOI of 7.6...meaning that only 7.6% of the homes sold in the last quarter were affordable to those making the median income of $113,100 (the median home price was $1.22 million!). While at the other extreme, 96.9% of the homes in Kokomo, IN are affordable to those making $62,500 per year, with a median home price of $119,000! That means a home in SF costs ten times as much as a home in Kokomo, but the income is only about twice as much.

When the demand increases, without a corresponding increase in supply, the price goes up. But why aren't more homes being built? From an article in National Review:
Why is California’s housing so expensive? Supply constraints. The LAO calculates that if California’s market were free enough to keep prices at 80 percent above the national average, as they were in 1980, we would have 2.7 million more homes, and 7 million more Californians today. 
After the Second World War, California’s housing market was relatively free, making the housing supply plentiful and cheap. Things started to change in the 1960s. Policies from every level of government since then have made it harder to build affordable, market-rate housing.

Local governments bear the brunt of responsibility. They began aggressively instituting zoning and environmental regulations meant to plan the development of their communities to meet particular visions — often quite nice visions, and conservative ones at that. Some regulations were obviously wrong, aimed at overt racial exclusion; but plenty of others focused on aesthetics, historic preservation, the promotion of single-family homes with two yards and a pool, crime reduction, traffic, density, environmental protection, or even efforts to provide affordable housing. This panoply of policies led to a near-cessation of market-driven construction in many cities and to its slowdown in others.
Also from the same article:
Californians and all Americans who want to ameliorate the condition of those with the least means should not start with incomes, which must compete globally. A minimum-wage increase sounds nice, but it could easily put people like the Hernandezes out of work. And the benefit would be marginal, at best. Rather, we should examine the expense, housing, that wipes out two-thirds of the incomes of California’s impoverished households, and a large share of the incomes of people in the middle class. The solutions won’t cost a dime; but they will require political courage. They will require an understanding of not only the problems but also the principles that undergird the successes of all flourishing societies – places more or less like California in the 1960s or like present-day Texas: individual rights and equality under the law, ideas that, today, are almost as distorted as California’s housing market.
So, unless California communities, and other communities across the country,  re-examine their housing rules, the costs of housing will continue to go up.

Interesting days


Today - Candy Corn DayCreate A Great Funeral Day and Checklist Day

Tomorrow - HalloweenCaramel Apple Day and Magic Day

Next Monday - Saxophone DayJob Action DayBroadcast Traffic Professionals Day and Nachos Day

November 30 - Computer Security Day and Stay Home Because You're Well Day

Saturday, October 28, 2017

Your weekend guide to interesting days

This week


Sunday - World Maths DayWorld Students' DayWhite Cane Safety DayChicken Cacciatore Day and World Toy Camera Day

Monday - iPod DayMole DayTV Talk Show Host Day and Boston Cream Pie Day

Tuesday - World Tripe Day and United Nations Day

Wednesday - International Artists DaySourest DayPunk for a Day DayGreasy Food Day and World Pasta Day

Thursday - Pumpkin DayMincemeat Day and Howl At The Moon Day

Yesterday - Navy DayInternational Bandana DayBlack Cat Day and Cranky Co-Workers Day

Today - Hug A Sheep DayMake A Difference DayPlush Animal Lover's Day and Animation Day

Next week


Tomorrow - Cat Day and Internet Day

Monday - Candy Corn DayCreate A Great Funeral Day and Checklist Day

Tuesday - Halloween, Caramel Apple Day and Magic Day

Wednesday - Go Cook For Your Pets DayStress Awareness DayAuthors' DayExtra Mile Day and World Vegan Day

Thursday - Use Less Stuff DayInternational Project Management DayDeviled Egg Day and Men Make Dinner Day

Friday - Fountain Pen Day, Sandwich Day, Housewife's Day, Cliché Day, Love Your Lawyer Day and Jellyfish Day

Saturday - World Numbat Day and Use Your Common Sense Day

Next month


November 22 - Go For A Ride Day

November 23 - Thanksgiving and Fibonacci Day

November 24 - Maize DayBuy Nothing DayCelebrate Your Unique Talent DayFlossing Day and Systems Engineer Day

November 25 - Shopping Reminder DaySmall Business Saturday (US) and Parfait Day

November 26 - Cake Day and International Aura Awareness Day

November 27 - Pins And Needles Day

November 28 - Giving Tuesday and French Toast Day


Friday, October 27, 2017

The Friday Fishwrap

All the news that's fit to wrap around a dead fish

The week in review


Monday - "A simple guide to net worth" What is net worth? "In simplest terms your net worth is what you own minus what you owe."

Tuesday - "Oh no!" Some random thoughts. "One more "one last thing". Did you know about the color code on the tags on bread loaves?"

Wednesday - "Appreciation Increases Your Value" From Harvey Mackay. "Whether spoken by you or to you, two words are among the most meaningful in our language."

Thursday - "Ready for the holiday season? #TBT" This probably isn't the last time you'll see me write about this. "This Holiday Checklist from SendOutCards will help take the stress of planning off your shoulders."

Interesting days


Today - Navy DayInternational Bandana DayBlack Cat Day and Cranky Co-Workers Day

Tomorrow - Hug A Sheep DayMake A Difference DayPlush Animal Lover's Day and Animation Day

Next Friday - Fountain Pen Day, Sandwich Day, Housewife's Day, Cliché Day, Love Your Lawyer Day and Jellyfish Day

November 27 - Pins And Needles Day


Thursday, October 26, 2017

Ready for the holiday season? #TBT

This post is from two years ago:

With only 60 more days until Christmas and Hanukkah approaching even more quickly, I thought it would be good to share my monthly SendOutCards blog. If you haven't signed up for my email list yet, just click on the link above and put your email address in the box. You'll receive a welcome email and a monthly notification when my new blog entry is posted. 

October 23, 2015 by r_tompkins



Ready or not, the holiday season is swiftly approaching. While some people embrace the holiday season, most people tend to view its approach with a bit of trepidation. If you aren’t one of those who already has wrapped gifts tucked away in closets just waiting to be put under the tree the instant Halloween is over, there’s no need to worry.

With a little planning, you too can embrace the approaching holidays. As with any event  - whether it is a meeting for work, a baby shower or a game night with friends – a little bit of organization can go a long way. It’s all in the planning.

One of the best ways to get organized is to make a checklist of all the tasks that need to be accomplished. If you are already feeling stressed about those Christmas cards, how about a little help? This Holiday Checklist from SendOutCards will help take the stress of planning off your shoulders.

Besides the planning, money is usually another source of stress. But planning ahead is actually a very important part of reducing these worries. Armed with a list of gifts you need to buy and how much you can afford to spend on each one, you will be better equipped to fend off those impulse buys and stick to your budget. Even with a list, picking out the right gifts can be challenging. Remember that gifts are about much more than the cost. They are a way to show people that you care and appreciate them. Focus on finding a gift that fits the receiver’s personality or a gift that reflects a special connection you have.

If you are still a little concerned, how about some help? Check out our awesome selection of cards and gifts!

Interesting days

 

Today - Pumpkin Day, Howl At The Moon Day and Mincemeat Day

Tomorrow - Navy DayInternational Bandana DayBlack Cat Day and Cranky Co-Workers Day

Next Thursday - Use Less Stuff DayInternational Project Management DayDeviled Egg Day and Men Make Dinner Day

November 26 - Cake Day and International Aura Awareness Day


Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Appreciation Increases Your Value


Today's post is from an email from Harvey Mackay:

 
A man attending a seminar on interpersonal relationships became convinced of the need for him to begin showing appreciation to people. His family seemed like an appropriate place to start. So on his way home, he picked up a dozen long-stem roses and a box of chocolates. This was going to be a real surprise, and he was excited to begin showing his wife how much he appreciated her.
 
Arriving home, he walked up to the front door with his hands full, rang the doorbell and waited for his wife to answer. Immediately upon seeing him, she began to cry.
 
"What's the matter honey?" asked the confused husband. 
 
"Oh, it's been a terrible day," she responded. "First, Tommy tried to flush a stuffed animal down the toilet, then the dishwasher quit working, Sally came home from school sick, and now ... now you come home drunk."
 
Oops.
 
Maybe this husband had bad timing or he should have shown more appreciation in the past. Or maybe he was suffering from the taking-things-for-granted syndrome. Many of us are comfortable with our lives and we often fail to appreciate our loved ones, friends, people we work with, our health, and on and on.
 
Whether spoken by you or to you, two words are among the most meaningful in our language. We teach them to tots learning to talk, to get them in the habit of showing gratitude. We write them when we receive a gift or a special favor. We say them when we remember to, which is often not enough.  
 
"There are two words that, when spoken, have the most unfathomable power to completely change your life," wrote Rhonda Byrne, author of "The Secret."  "Two words which, when they pass your lips, will be the cause of bringing absolute joy and happiness to you. Two words that will create miracles in your life. Two words that will wipe out negativity. Two words that will bring you abundance in all things. Two words which, when uttered and sincerely felt, will summon all the forces and vibrations in the Universe to move all things for you. The only thing standing between you, happiness, and the life of your dreams is two words ... THANK YOU!"  
 
William James, psychologist and philosopher, said, "The deepest principle of human nature is a craving to be appreciated."
 
Studies by other psychologists reflect this as well. Psychologists Michael E. McCullough and Robert A. Emmons performed several studies in which participants were asked to practice exercises of "counting their blessings" either on a weekly basis for 10 weeks or on a daily basis for a couple weeks. Participants were asked to record their moods, coping behaviors, health behaviors, physical symptoms and overall life appraisals. Their research is one reason many people believe appreciation is the most essential and powerful constituent of well-being.
 
The cost of praising someone is nil - but a recent study has found that the payoff can be huge.  Employees want to be seen as competent, hardworking members of the team. Good managers want satisfied, motivated, and productive staff members. What better motivation than thanking employees for their contributions to the company's success? 
 
Showing appreciation also generates respect and builds relationships. The keys are to be sincere and specific. Whether it's in person or in writing, it's always good to praise others in public, which raises morale. Just keep it genuine - going overboard can have the reverse effect.
 
Fortunately there are many simple ways to show appreciation to people at work:
  • Take note of a talent or skill they have and compliment them.
  • Ask co-workers about their lives outside of work. Show a genuine interest. Everything doesn't have to be about business.
  • Give recognition for a job well done.
  • Offer to help if you know a co-worker is in a bind.
  • Buy lunch.  
  • Tell their boss what a good job they did on a project.
 
Little things mean a lot ... not true. Little things mean everything.
 
Just remember:  You get what you give. When you give appreciation and acknowledgement, you are showing that you value the people around you.You might be just one person, but hearing a simple "thank you" may be all it takes to turn someone's day around. I guarantee that you will get something in return - the satisfaction of knowing that you have made a difference for someone. And that's all the thanks you need. 
 
Mackay's Moral: "Thank you" is always a welcome message. 

How do you show appreciation to those in your life...friends, family, customers, clients or those people that you come into contact with on a daily basis?

Interesting days



Tomorrow - Pumpkin DayMincemeat Day and Howl At The Moon Day

November - Peanut Butter Lovers' MonthNovel Writing MonthNative American Heritage MonthManatee Awareness MonthWorld Vegan Month and Pomegranate Month

Next Wednesday - Go Cook For Your Pets DayStress Awareness DayAuthors' DayExtra Mile Day and World Vegan Day

November 25 - Shopping Reminder DaySmall Business Saturday (US) and Parfait Day



Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Oh no!

I have no idea what I'm going to write about today, but that's never stopped me before. So, here are a few random thoughts:

Are you sending holiday cards this year? SendOutCards is one of the easiest and most fun ways of getting your holiday cards sent out. The first time I used SOC to send out my holiday cards, I sent 72 cards in 5 minutes. That included selecting a card, picking out who I wanted to send it to from my contact manager and adding American Express gift cards for my kids. Let me know if you're sending cards...whether for Halloween, Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas, Kwanzaa, New Year's or any combination of the above. I can work out the best deal for you whether you want to send one card or one million (yes, SendOutCards can send a million cards...we've gotten close to sending that many cards in one day. Let's see if we can get to a daily total of 1,000,000 cards this year!).

Do you like to travel? Do you like to shop? Do you like the stores (and restaurants) that you shop at to pay you to travel? Then check out DreamTrips.

One last thing for today. If you're in network marketing, check out this video interview with Jordan Adler, the author of "Beach Money".

One more "one last thing". Did you know about the color code on the tags on bread loaves?


An easy way to remember is the first letter of each color is in alphabetical order: blue, green, red, white and yellow.

Interesting days


Today - World Tripe Day and United Nations Day

Tomorrow - International Artists DaySourest DayPunk for a Day DayGreasy Food Day and World Pasta Day

Next Tuesday - Halloween, Caramel Apple Day and Magic Day

November 24 - Maize DayBuy Nothing DayCelebrate Your Unique Talent DayFlossing Day and Systems Engineer Day



Monday, October 23, 2017

A simple guide to net worth

I've written about net worth twice before: "Your network equals your net worth" about growing and nurturing your network for success and "Build Your Wealth: Graduate from a Paycheck Mentality to a Net Worth Mentality" which is more in line with what I'm going to talk about today.

So, what is net worth and why is it important? In simplest terms your net worth is what you own minus what you owe. Add up all your assets...home, car, furniture, computers, savings, stocks, bonds, a business if you have one. And then subtract the balance (not your monthly payments) of your mortgage, car loan, student loan, credit cards, etc. The amount left over is your net worth.

But is your home or car really an asset? Not according to Robert Kiyosaki (author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad"):
Your financial planner, real estate agent, and accountant all call your house an asset. But in reality, an asset is only something that puts money in your pocket. If you have a house that you rent out to tenants, then it’s an asset. If you have a house, paid for or not, that you live in, then it can’t be an asset. Instead of putting money in your pocket, it takes money out of your pocket. That is the simple definition of a liability. 
This is doubly true if you don’t own your home yet. Then it’s the bank’s asset, and it is working for them, but it’s not earning you anything.
This applies to your car, too, unless you drive for Uber or Lyft, then it's putting money in your pocket.

Using this definition, only things like stocks, bonds, savings, rental real estate and businesses are assets...but all of those liabilities are still liabilities, including your mortgage and car payment.

I don't know if I agree that an asset is only something that puts money in your pocket, I think an asset is something that has value. I'll leave it up to you to decide which definition you want to use.

There are three kinds of wealth: asset, equity and cash. Asset is the easiest to obtain...you just have to own something, it doesn't matter how much you owe on it. To be an asset millionaire you just have to own a million dollars worth of assets. Equity wealth is the same as net worth wealth...your net worth is your equity, although equity is used more in business than personal life. So an equity millionaire owns a million dollars more in assets than they owe. The third, and best, kind of wealth is cash wealth. A cash millionaire has a million dollars in cash, or cash equivalents such as bonds, notes, T-bills, etc.

Ideally, you'll want to get to the point where your assets provide enough money for you to live on. The best definition of wealth I've seen is:
The definition of wealth is the number of days you can survive without physically working (or anyone in your household physically working) and still maintain your standard of living. 
For example, if your monthly expenses are $5,000 and you have $20,000 in savings, your wealth is approximately four months or 120 days. 
Wealth is measured in time, not dollars. - Robert Kiyosaki
The majority of Americans are one paycheck away from financial ruin...so, most have a month or less of wealth! If your assets provide 100% of the money that you need to live on, then you are financially independent.

One way to measure how well you're doing is by a ratio called the Return on Net Worth (RON), which is your household income divided by your net worth. It appears to use your gross income in this example:
While reading Thomas Stanley’s Millionaire Women Next Door, I came across something called the RON or Return on Net Worth. It’s calculated by dividing one’s household income by their net worth (assets – minus liabilities). The formula looks like this:
RON = Household Income ÷ Household Net Worth
The book gives an example of a woman who makes $125,000 per year and has a net worth of $690,000. Her RON would be calculated as follows:
RON = $125,000 ÷ $690,000
RON = .1812 or 18.12%
Is that good or bad? Yes. That just means that it depends on her age and her financial needs. Another measure, which is just a simple rule of thumb, states:
Have you ever wondered if you were “wealthy?” There is a rule-of-thumb formula used in The Millionaire Next Door for determining whether or not you are wealthy. For those who are interested, their simple formula is:
Multiply your age by your pretax income from all sources (except inheritances).
Divide that number by 10 to arrive at what your net worth should be.
So, if you are 35 years old and your household income is 60,000 per year, your networth should be $210,000 [(35 X $60,000)/10 = $210,000] in order for you to be considered wealthy.
So, if our mystery woman was 50 years old and making $125,000 she should have $625,000 in assets and she actually has $690,000 so she seems to be doing fairly well.

The numbers in that rule of thumb are way off if you're young, but if you're in your 50's and 60's you can get a rough idea of where you stand. And it looks like it's probably including home equity. So, in the 30 years that she's probably been working, she's acquired an average of $23,000 per year in combined savings, investments and home equity.

How are you doing in the net worth department? Do you need to ramp it up a little? One of the best ways to build a passive income, one that you don't have to work for, and to build your net worth is by building a network marketing business. Email me if you'd like to find out more.

Interesting days



Tomorrow - World Tripe Day and United Nations Day

Next Monday - Candy Corn DayCreate A Great Funeral Day and Checklist Day

November 23 - Fibonacci Day


Saturday, October 21, 2017

Your weekend guide to interesting days

This week


Sunday - World Maths DayWorld Students' DayWhite Cane Safety DayChicken Cacciatore Day and World Toy Camera Day

Monday  - Steve Jobs DayDepartment Store DayFeral Cat DayBoss' DayClean Your Virtual Desktop Day and Dictionary Day

Tuesday - International Day for the Eradication of PovertyWear Something Gaudy DaySpreadsheet DayMulligan DayAda Lovelace Day and Playing Card Collection Day

Wednesday - Chocolate Cupcake DayHagfish DayGlobal Dignity Day and No Beard Day

Thursday - Get Smart About Credit DayConflict Resolution Day and Evaluate Your Life Day

Yesterday - Information Overload Day,  International Sloth DayWaiters DayBrandied Fruit Day and Suspender's Day

Today - Sweetest DayApple DayCount Your Buttons Day and Reptile Awareness Day

Next week


Tomorrow - World Maths DayWorld Students' DayWhite Cane Safety DayChicken Cacciatore Day and World Toy Camera Day

Monday - iPod DayMole DayTV Talk Show Host Day and Boston Cream Pie Day

Tuesday - World Tripe Day and United Nations Day

Wednesday - International Artists DaySourest DayPunk for a Day DayGreasy Food Day and World Pasta Day

Thursday - Pumpkin DayMincemeat Day and Howl At The Moon Day

Friday - Navy DayInternational Bandana DayBlack Cat Day and Cranky Co-Workers Day 

Saturday - Hug A Sheep DayMake A Difference DayPlush Animal Lover's Day and Animation Day

Next month


November 15 - Philanthropy DayClean Out Your Refrigerator Day and I Love to Write Day

November 16 - Beaujolais Nouveau DaySocial Enterprise DayButton DayHave a Party with Your Bear Day, Fast Food Day and International Day for Tolerance

November 17 - Take A Hike DayUnfriend DayHomemade Bread DayPetroleum Day and World Prematurity Day

November 18 - Occult DayHousing DayMickey Mouse Day and GIS Day

November 19 - Guinness World Record Day Have A Bad Day DayWorld Toilet Day and International Men's Day

November 20 - Universal Children's DayAfrican Industrialization DayPeanut Butter Fudge Day, Human-Animal Relationship Awareness Week and Name Your PC Day

November 21 - Entrepreneurs' DayWorld Hello Day and World Television Day


Friday, October 20, 2017

The Friday Fishwrap

All the news that's fit to wrap around a dead fish

The week in review


Monday - "Don't be mean" All about mathematical averages. "The mean has one main disadvantage: it is particularly susceptible to the influence of outliers. These are values that are unusual compared to the rest of the data set by being especially small or large in numerical value."

Tuesday - "A Year Long Road Trip For People Who Want 70 Degree Weather Everyday" An example of using "normal" or average temperatures to plan out your vacation. "On this trip, you spend the first 2 months in Hawaii  From there you fly to Florida and start the road trip which then ends up back in Florida. You then spend New Year's Eve back in Hawaii. Any trip that begins and ends in Hawaii sounds pretty good to me!"

Wednesday - "Just what is normal, anyway?" A discussion about "normal" temperatures. "Scientists traditionally define a Climate Normal as an average over a recent 30-year period."

Thursday - "Tomorrow is #SuspendersDay #TBT" A celebration worth upholding. "Samuel Clemens, known for his work as the author Mark Twain, patented "Adjustable and Detachable Straps for Garments," (ADSG) becoming one of the first to receive a United States patent for suspenders in 1871."

Interesting days


Today - Information Overload Day, International Sloth DayWaiters DayBrandied Fruit Day and Suspender's Day

Tomorrow - Sweetest DayApple DayCount Your Buttons Day and Reptile Awareness Day

Next Friday - Navy DayInternational Bandana DayBlack Cat Day and Cranky Co-Workers Day

November 20 - Universal Children's DayAfrican Industrialization DayPeanut Butter Fudge Day, Human-Animal Relationship Awareness Week and Name Your PC Day


Thursday, October 19, 2017

Tomorrow is #SuspendersDay #TBT

Today's blog post is a throw back to last year:

According to Wikipedia:
Suspenders (American English, Canadian English) or braces (British English) are fabric or leather straps worn over the shoulders to hold up trousers. The straps may be elasticated, either entirely or only at attachment ends, and most straps are of woven cloth forming an X or Y shape at the back. Suspenders are typically attached to trousers with clips or buttons using leather tabs at the ends. Outside the United States the term suspenders, or suspender belt, refers to a garment used to hold up stockings. This is called a garter belt in American English.

History

There have been several precursors to suspenders throughout the past 300 years, but modern suspenders were first invented in 1820 by Albert Thurston. They were once almost universally worn, due to the high cut of mid-nineteenth and early twentieth century trousers that made a belt impractical. During the nineteenth century, suspenders were sometimes called galluses. Samuel Clemens, known for his work as the author Mark Twain, patented "Adjustable and Detachable Straps for Garments," (ADSG) becoming one of the first to receive a United States patent for suspenders in 1871. After losing popularity during World War I, when men became accustomed to uniform belts, suspenders were still regular attire throughout the 1920s. Because of their image as 'underwear', some men switched to belts during the 1930s as the vests which had hidden suspenders became worn less often. This also signaled the switch in position of securing buttons from the outside of the waistband to the inside. Life magazine stated in 1938 that 60% of American men chose belts over suspenders. Though the return of fuller-cut trousers in the 1940s revived suspenders, they did not dominate over belts again to the same extent. However, in the UK they remained the norm to wear with suits and dress trousers.
And here is a drawing from Samuel Clemens' patent:


Here are some photos of famous suspenders:






And here's an article on "How to Properly Wear Suspenders".

Interesting days


Today - Get Smart About Credit DayConflict Resolution Day and Evaluate Your Life Day

Tomorrow - Information Overload Day,  International Sloth DayWaiters DayBrandied Fruit Day and Suspender's Day

Next Thursday - Pumpkin DayMincemeat Day and Howl At The Moon Day

November 19 - Guinness World Record Day Have A Bad Day DayWorld Toilet Day and International Men's Day

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Just what is normal, anyway?

Yesterday's blog post talked about travelling the country, visiting places that had a normal monthly temperature of 70 degrees. According to the National Centers for Environmental Information:

What Are Climate Normals?

Scientists traditionally define a Climate Normal as an average over a recent 30-year period. Our most recent installment covers the period from 1981 to 2010. Why 30 years? Close to a century ago, the International Meteorological Organization—now known as the World Metrological Organization (link is external)—instructed member nations to calculate Climate Normals using 30-year periods, beginning with 1901–1930. Also, a general rule in statistics says that you need at least 30 numbers to get a reliable estimate of their mean or average. So, our scientists have traditionally defined Normals as averages over 30 years simply because that is the accepted convention—not because a 30-year average is the only logical or “right” way to define a Climate Normal.
A bell shaped curve is called a normal curve and according to the Central Limit Theorem in statistics:
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT for short) basically says that for non-normal data, the distribution of the sample means has an approximate normal distribution, no matter what the distribution of the original data looks like, as long as the sample size is large enough (usually at least 30) and all samples have the same size. And it doesn’t just apply to the sample mean; the CLT is also true for other sample statistics, such as the sample proportion. Because statisticians know so much about the normal distribution, these analyses are much easier. 
So, your data can approximate a normal curve if you have at least 30 data items.

According to their data, the "normal" high temperature for October 17th in Modesto, CA is 78.7 and the predicted high was 82 degrees. As we talked about on Monday, the average, or mean, gives only half the information. We also need the standard deviation, which is not included with the normal temps. But since our high today is only a little more than 3 degrees from the mean, we can probably safely assume that it's a reasonably "normal" value.

The normal temperature for today (it's the 17th as I'm writing this) was found by taking the average of the high temerature on this day every year between 1981 and 2010. The normal high for the month is the average of the high temperatures for each day of the month. Here are the monthly "normal" highs for Modesto:

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
55.4 63.8 68.7 74.7 82.9 89.9 95.1 93.6 89.0 79.0 65.5 55.6
The average annual temperature is 76.1 degrees and the standard deviation is 14.3 degrees, which says that about two-thirds of the months should have an average high temperature between 61.8 and 90.4 degrees, which they do. We can say something like "The monthly high temperatures range from a low of 55 degrees in January, to a high of 95 degrees in July. Eight months of the year have an average high temperature between 62 and 90 degrees".

Meanwhile, in International Falls, MN, the average annual temperature is 48.7 degrees and the standard deviation is 23.1 degrees, which says that about two-thirds of the months should have an average high temperature between 25.6 and 71.8 degrees, which they don't.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
15.4 22.0 34.7 51.5 64.8 73.2 77.8 75.9 65.4 51.1 33.7 19.0
We can say something like "The monthly high temperatures range from a low of 15 degrees in January, to a high of 78 degrees in July. Six months of the year have an average high temperature between 26 and 72 degrees". In this case, the median would make a better measure. The median is 51.3, Q1 is 30.8 and Q3 is 67.4. Fifty percent of the values will fall in between Q1 and Q3. Or 6 values should fall between 31 and 67 degrees, which they do. Since there are only 12 data items, we don't really have a normal distribution in either case. It's just that Modesto was a little better behaved. Here's a graph of the monthly high temperatures, with Modesto in red and International Falls in blue.



So, now you know what normal means. At least as far as temperature goes.

Interesting days


Today - Chocolate Cupcake DayHagfish DayGlobal Dignity Day and No Beard Day

Tomorrow - Get Smart About Credit DayConflict Resolution Day and Evaluate Your Life Day

Next Wednesday - International Artists DaySourest DayPunk for a Day DayGreasy Food Day and World Pasta Day

November 18 - Occult DayHousing DayMickey Mouse Day and GIS Day